What is pull-forward effect and why does it matter?

Pull-forward is when customers buy during a sale who would have bought anyway at full price — just later. A 30% off sale might generate $100K in revenue, but if $40K would have happened next week anyway, your true incremental revenue is only $60K. Meanwhile, you lost the full margin on that $40K. Our calculator estimates pull-forward based on your historical data and industry benchmarks.

How do I calculate if my promotion was profitable?

True promo profit = Incremental Revenue × (New Margin %) - (Pull-Forward Revenue × Lost Margin) - Ad Spend - Operational Costs. Most brands only look at revenue lift, ignoring that they're selling to customers who would have paid full price. Max calculates all hidden costs to show true P&L.

What's margin erosion and how bad is it?

Margin erosion is the profit you lose by discounting. On a product with 60% margin, a 30% discount doesn't just reduce margin to 30% — it's worse. If your COGS is $40 on a $100 product, selling at $70 means your margin drops from $60 to $30 (50% reduction in profit per unit). If you're not acquiring NEW customers, you're just giving away profit.

Are Black Friday / BFCM sales profitable?

Often not as much as brands think. Research shows 30-50% of BFCM purchases are pull-forward from customers who would have bought in December anyway. The heavy discounting, combined with higher ad costs, means many brands actually lose money. Our tool helps you model BFCM scenarios before committing.

What's customer training and why should I care?

Customer training is when frequent discounts teach customers to never pay full price. If you run 30% off sales monthly, customers learn to wait. This permanently damages full-price conversion rates. Our calculator factors in estimated long-term revenue impact from discount conditioning.

Which promotions are typically most profitable?

Generally: Gift with Purchase > Tiered Discounts > Free Shipping > BOGO > Site-wide % Off. GWP and tiered discounts increase AOV without training customers to expect discounts. Site-wide sales are often the worst because they discount customers who would have paid full price.

How do I run a promotion that's actually profitable?

Key strategies: 1) Target NEW customers only with discounts, 2) Use minimum spend thresholds to protect margin, 3) Limit duration to reduce pull-forward, 4) Test GWP instead of % off, 5) Exclude bestsellers that sell well at full price. Max provides specific recommendations based on your inputs.

Promo profitability analyzer

Max calculates the true P&L of your promotions including pull-forward and margin erosion.

Promo Name *

Promo Type *

Discount % *

Promo Results

Revenue *

Orders *

Duration (days)

Your Baseline Metrics

Normal AOV *

Gross Margin % *

Avg Daily Rev

Industry

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